Will Michigan football hit over/under win total for 2024?

Following spring practices, the oddsmakers in Vegas updated their over/under win projections for the 2024 season, and the number for Michigan football is set at 9.5.

The schedule is daunting. There are road games against Ohio State and Washington, plus home tilts against Texas, Oregon, and USC.

The good news is that with the 12-team playoff starting, there is more margin for error. If Michigan football wins 10 games, it will be in the playoff. If it wins nine, it probably still has a good chance.

In terms of the number, Vegas did a good job. It’s a close call either way and here are some thoughts on whether or not Michigan football will hit the over or not.

Will Michigan hit the over in 2024?

The Wolverines are underdogs in three games right now: Ohio State (+10), Oregon (+2.5), and Texas (+3). Until we see how the quarterback position is going to work out, that’s understandable.

Vegas favored Ohio State in 2021 and 2022 also. But hitting the over is going to mean winning a game as an underdog. If Michigan wants to win a fourth Big Ten title, it will have to at least beat Oregon or Ohio State in the regular season to make the championship game.

Winning in Columbus will be a tall order. It’s not impossible but there’s a reason Michigan football hadn’t done it in 22 years. It took a generational quarterback to get it done. The last quarterback before that to win there was Drew Henson and he was damn good too.

Brian Griese also engineered an upset win back in 1996 in Columbus, but it’s going to take great quarterback play, one way or another. It remains to be seen if the Wolverines have that club in their bag.

The defense is exceptional though and I have a hard time seeing Michigan football losing to both Oregon and Texas. Washington will be much easier than last season, especially with all the turnover, so I can see U-M winning all of its road games except Ohio State. One loss at home to Oregon or Texas seems reasonable, plus I think Michigan’s physicality will win out against USC.

I’m not super confident saying Michigan will be 10-2. But an elite defense and running game go a long way in college football, especially at home, so I’d take the over. It’s risky though until we know how things will sort themselves out at quarterback.